To Win, You Need To Bet the Better Team

Statistically, the average bettor will bet favorites. That’s a big mistake, and here is why.

To begin with, the average bettor will overstate the relative potency of the league’s better players and teams. What pro handicappers know is that there’s actually tremendous parity in the league, with not that much difference between the best player in a position and also the worst.

When a group of marginally worse players is much more inspired than a group of slightly better players that an absolutely upset is possible. Most certainly, it is possible for the”poor” team to cover the point spread.

Secondly, the point spread will nullify any obvious scrimmage border (power or skill benefit ) a group has over its opponent. From the 1999 and 2000 seasons, for example, there were 167 matches where the point spread was seven points or more (games where one group’s edge over another was perceived to be sizable). While the underdog won just 36 of these games (21.6 percent), the underdog covered the point spread in 83 of those matches (while tying it six): a success rate of 51.6 percent.

Third, by gambling an underdog, you’ve got a significant element of sport strategy on your side. NFL teams do their best to win a match. Accordingly, in the last couple of minutes of a game, a team that is leading seldom takes much risk to score more points. It targets hanging on to its lead. The group that is losing, on the other hand, usually attempts to score until the bitter end. If a bettor has taken a favorite that is ahead but not covering five minutes or not to proceed, that bettor is in trouble.

In 20 decades of handicapping the NFL, I have yet to stumble upon a long-term winning bettor who doesn’t bet mostly underdogs.

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