This weekend we have a 13-fight card after that extended 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and I am ready to win some cash on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC debut so it is always nice once you’re already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Since this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions aren’t the best, but there’s still a lot of cash to be obtained. I will be pursuing the big $15k top prize at the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at those huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I’ll be starting my money lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC fights have all been Fight Of The Year type fights. Those kinds of fights are great for DraftKings. Especially cash games since we can lock at a win and get all the points in the very best battle on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the job done in cash games and we will get over 100 points on this fight. But with that triumph locked in, we simply need to find 3 other people we feel great about.
GPP play of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s challenging to want to pay $9.5k to get a guy like Barberena when you can just pay an extra $200 to get a -1000 favorite in Anders. But, I think that is what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I think we’ll get him at a somewhat lower possession as a consequence of his massive salary, and he’s got a very good shot at obtaining a 1st round triumph. If he can find a 1st round KO then he’ll have at least 100 points so he’ll pay off that high salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, I believe that you should get some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he’s a shell of his old self. I think Barberena does pick up a finish in this struggle so that I will throw him some GPPs and hope he is beneath owned.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is merely the easy worth play of the week. Presently, Fili is the betting popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that value when it is available so I think he is in play in most formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments with all the value we are becoming on himbut I am ready to eat that chalk and that I do not want to get burned by entirely fading that worth. I really do think this is the toughest fight on the card to call, but if Fili keeps with his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic shot at winning this fight. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I would favor MJ although not by a lot. At $7.5k we don’t need a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass on this respect and I think he’s the easy underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my personal bias but I am not going to possess Drew Dober in any of my primary ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has just went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just seeking to strike. I believe that this is going to be a striking battle also and I think it’s going to be closer than the odds indicate. At $8.9k I believe we’ll need a complete from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and I really don’t see that occurring. Should you think Dober can find a KO, then you should be playing him. I’ll just be paying up elsewhere because I am not sure he could get that complete and that I wouldn’t be shocked if he lost the fight. I will say I never look to use Dober in DraftKings, so I could get burned again here but I will stick with my Dober evaporate and he’ll be my fade of the week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each struggle, my private strategies & recommendations, and my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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