This weekend we have a 13-fight card after that long 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and I am ready to win some cash on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC debut so it’s always nice once you’re already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests are not the greatest, but there is still a lot of money to be won. I will be pursuing the big $15k top prize at the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at these big prizes. Listed below are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I will be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is full of action and his three UFC fights have all been Fight Of The Year type conflicts. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games since we can lock at a win and get all the points at the very best battle on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the job done in cash games and we’ll get over 100 points on this fight. So, with that triumph locked in, we just need to find 3 others we feel good about.
GPP drama of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s tough to need to pay $9.5k to get a man like Barberena when you can just pay an additional $200 to find a -1000 favorite in Anders. However, I believe that’s what most folks will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I believe we’ll get him at a somewhat lower ownership as a consequence of his massive salary, and he has a very good shot at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can find a 1st round KO afterward he will have at least 100 points so he’ll pay off that high salary. If you think Ellenberger is completely faded, then I think you should get some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he is a shell of his older self. I believe Barberena does pick up an end inside this fight so I will throw him some GPPs and expect he’s under possessed.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the effortless value play of this week. Currently, Fili is the betting favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that worth when it is available so I think he is in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments together with the value we’re getting on him, but I am ready to eat that chalk and that I do not want to get burnt by completely fading that value. I really do think this is the toughest fight on the card to phone, but when Fili keeps with his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic shot at winning this fight. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I would prefer MJ but not by a good deal. At $7.5k we do not require a huge score from Fili so any win will likely do the trick. I am not going to pass up on this value and I think he is the easy underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my own personal prejudice but I will not possess Drew Dober in some of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just seeking to strike. I think this is going to be a remarkable battle also and I think that it’s going to be closer than the chances signal. At $8.9k I think we’ll require a complete from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and that I really don’t see that occurring. Should you think Dober can find a KO, then you ought to be playing him. I’ll just be paying up someplace because I am not sure he can find that finish and that I would not be amazed if he even lost the struggle. I will say I never look to use Dober at DraftKings, so I could get burned again here but I will stick with my Dober fade and he’ll be my fade of this week for UFC Lincoln.
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